WNBA Betting Preview
Dream-Mystics Preview
How many of you projected, prior to the start of the season, that the Washington Mystics (who have never before finished first in a WNBA regular season) would end the season as the top seed in the 2010? Not this scribe. I slotted them in fifth!
The Mystics started out slowly (4-3 in May) as they adjusted to the loss of star Alana Beard and addition of free agent Katie Smith. They stood at 13-10, coming off a three-game losing streak, on July 30 when they won at Indiana to start a 9-2 run down the stretch. They won their last six games and captured the number-one seed in the Eastern Conference with the tie-breaker over the New York Liberty. That takes a lot of guts!
Conversely, the Atlanta Dream, whom the Mystics will take on in the opening round of the WNBA Eastern Conference playoffs, returned the line-up with which they finished most of the latter half of the 2009 season. In a year when a lot of teams had to adjust to major roster changes to start the 2010 season, the Dream started out of the gate at 6-0.
But as other teams began to gel together, and concurrently learned how to play Atlanta, wins became tougher to come by. The Dream finished the season 4-6, winning only twice in August and dropped from first to fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
But as players and coaches will be quick to tell you, the record reverts to 0-0 once the post-season gets under way. How are these two teams likely to match up in the playoffs?
Past History and 2010 Regular Season Meetings
Given the Dream’s short history (this is the second playoff appearance in the team’s three years of existence), this is the first playoff series between these franchises.
In 2010 regular season, Washington won the season series with Atlanta three games to one, losing the first game at home, 86-79, and then winning the last three (Home: 82-72; Away: 86-78; Away: 90-81).
General Similarities And Differences
Dream Coach and GM Marynell Meadors was a Mystics staff member during her prior WNBA stint and is familiar with their personnel and style of play. Perhaps the biggest similarity between these two teams is that both would like to run, the Dream even more so than the Mystics.
The differences between the two are many, centering primarily on scoring balance as well as primary offensive and defensive philosophy. The Dream relies more on a “quick-strike” fast-break offense and scoring off offensive rebounds, while the Mystics are more comfortable operating in a quarter-court offense. Thus, the more hectic the games become, the more the Dream usually likes it, while the Mystic players appear more comfortable in a grinding game.
Atlanta has more double-digit scorers. Washington is more likely to be balanced in scoring thanks to more bench firepower.
On defense, the Dream is more likely to resort to a zone than the Mystics. Dream reserves are more defensive-minded while key Mystic reserves can supply more offensive punch.
Injuries
Both teams have avoided catastrophic injuries during the season, though the Mystics have an active roster of only 10, due to the loss of Alana Beard, who underwent ankle surgery prior to the start of the season and is sidelined until next year. However, the Mystics’ active roster comes into the playoff series fully healthy.
The Dream may have to play this series without back-up point guard Kelly Miller who has already missed several late-season games with a high ankle sprain.
BREAKDOWN BY POSITION
Center: Can Erika DeSouza Be the Difference for the Dream?
In Atlanta’s one win over the Mystics, the Brazilian international scored 23, points while in the three losses, DeSouza never scored more than 11. On the season, DeSouza is averaging 12.4 points per game, shooting 57.1 percent from the field, and rebounding at an 8.3 rebound per game clip.
For about two-thirds of the season, the Mystics have started Nakia Sanford at center. However, on average Sanford plays slightly less time than Chasity Melvin at the position. Neither is a major force in the Mystics’ arsenal, with Sanford averaging 6.0 points per game to Melvin’s 5.2 points per game. Sanford shoots the ball better than Melvin (47.8 percent to 43.4 percent from the field), but Sanford also turns it over more. Melvin is a more effective shot-blocker and a slightly better rebounder than Sanford, but it is unlikely the success or failure of the Mystics will hinge on this position.
Advantage: Give the edge to the Dream.
Power Forward: Can Crystal Langhorne Continue to Dominate at this Position?
This Mystics’ power forward has turned in three double-doubles in games against the Dream, and Dream post defenders have had difficulty containing Langhorne’s quickness to the basket. On the season, the Maryland product is averaging 16.3 points per game on an amazingly strong 58.9 percent from the field while rebounding at 9.7 rebounds per game. Langhorne has shot the ball at nearly a 60 percent clip since entering the league in 2008. To her credit she has significantly increased her range from the block to now beyond the elbow and has improved her effectiveness in driving right rather than just going with her predominant left hand.
Sancho Lyttle, her Dream counterpart, is the more explosive athlete. Lyttle looks more to shoot jumpers near the top of the key than to drive to the hoop. While Lyttle, averaging 12.8 points per game and 9.9 rebounds per game, is also a regular threat to double-double, she does not shoot the ball nearly as well as Langhorne. (Lyttle still shoots a respectable 48.4 percent from the field, however.)
Advantage: Both are effective but Langhorne more so, giving the edge to the Mystics.
Small Forward: Can McCoughtry Make a Difference this Time?
It is pretty clear that Angel McCoughtry is the best player on the Dream. Her scoring average is one of the highest in the league at 21.1 points per game. But McCoughtry is something of a volume shooter, getting her points while shooting only 40.8 percent from the field and 26.2 percent from behind the arc. She also pulls in 4.9 rebounds per game. What makes her so tough is her ability to get to the foul line, where she has led the league in total attempts this season, while cashing in on 80.3 percent of her penalty shots.
Against the Mystics, McCoughtry’s worst performance came in Atlanta’s last regular-season game, which the Dream lost to Washington. McCoughtry posted 19 points on 4-for-19 from the field in that game. Otherwise, she posted strong outings against the Mystics but the Dream nevertheless lost three out of four of the games in the series. That raises the questions how much difference McCoughtry’s contribution is likely to make in this match-up and whether she will be elevate her game sufficiently to alter the outcome of this playoff series.
For the Mystics, Monique Currie is having her best season in this, the fifth year of her pro career. On the season, the Duke product is averaging 14.1 points per game on 43.6 percent from the field and 44.6 percent from behind the arc; she also pulls in 4.8 rebounds per game. She has, however, struggled more often than not against the Dream, posting just 10, 6 and 8 points in the first three meetings between the two teams before breaking out for 20 in Sunday’s encounter.
Advantage: Put this match-up in Atlanta’s corner.
Shooting Guard: Can the savvy vet (Katie Smith) outfox the young attacker in-her-prime (Iziane Castro Marques)?
This may well be the most fascinating match-up of this playoff series. On paper, this should be a slam dunk: The Dream’s Iziane Castro Marques averages 16.9 points per game on 44.4 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from behind the arc, while Katie Smith, once considered the best shooter in the WNBA, is currently averaging just 9.5 points per game on 39.5 percent from the field and 36.2 percent from deep. Both players are averaging 2.6 assists per game. Their numbers are similar in rebounds and steals.
Smith shoots foul shots better than Castro Marques (76.4 percent to 65.9) percent and turns the ball over about one fewer times per game. So where does Smith make up the difference?
With intangibles! She is like a middle linebacker on defense sometimes guarding a small quick guard and sometimes matching up on a power forward. In either case it is rare to see her break down defensively. On offense, she might set the key pick or make the pass that leads to the assist or if needed step in to play the point, not her natural position.
Smith’s biggest weakness is that she is now 36 and on some days the shot isn’t quite there anymore. She reached double figures in only one of the Mystics’ four regular-season meetings against the Dream.
For “Izzy” (as she is known in WNBA and Brazilian circles) to succeed in this match-up, she must keep attacking. Against the Mystics, she hit double figures in three out of four games but hot well only in meetings one and three. A negative for the Brazilian is that she will sometimes make bad decisions with the ball. The Dream needs to win this match-up to take the series as there are not a lot of pluses coming after this.
Advantage: Call this one about even, though the players in question are very different in style.
Point Guard: Will Harding Prove a Nightmare for the Dream?
While visiting the District of Columbia, Dream Coach and GM Marynell Meadors ought to check to see if there is some obscure federal program providing aid in the form of point guards. Atlanta has one of the worst lead guard situations in the league. Granted when the “quick strike” offense is working, this is not such a problem, but when the game gets bogged down in the quarter court, the Dream essentially play four-on-five when Shalee Lehning is at point.
The Kansas State product is adequate at initiating the offense, but is largely ignored once she makes the first pass. Her glossy 2.61:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is simply not enough to compensate for her 3.7 point-per-game offensive output. The problem is not so much her lack of scoring in and of itself , but rather that her perceived lack of being a scoring threat allows the opposition defense to help out in the paint or plug holes elsewhere. Meanwhile, on defense, Lehning can be described as adequate on her good days.
Lindsey Harding is the opposite of Lehning. She may not always score but she always puts pressure on the defense, and she is an above average defender. The Duke product’s biggest weakness is subpar three-point shooting (28.8 percent from deep), but she shoots a solid 44.5 percent overall with her attack heavy to penetration. She also sports a respectable 1.46:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Depth at the position is also a serious problem for Atlanta. With Dream back-up point Kelly Miller still out as of their last game due to a high ankle sprain, twin Coco Miller, who is not really a point guard, may again get significant minutes if Kelly can’t go in this series.
Advantage: Any way you slice it, this position probably gives the biggest edge for the Mystics.
Bench
No Dream reserve averages over 5.0 points per game. Prime reserves are Kelly Miller who backs up the point (but as noted above, may be out of commission for the series) and Armintie Price who can play either wing slot, but is really more of a guard than a forward.
Miller is a better athlete than Lehning and perceived to be more of a scoring threat, even though she is shooting just 29 percent for the year. She does not run the offense as well as Lehning but can defend in a more satisfactory manner. Twin Coco Miller is shooting better than Kelly at 40 percent from the field, but she has even less by way of point guard instincts than her sister.
Price is a quick-strike attacker who doesn’t shoot much except off penetration and is the key defensive stopper off the bench. Her foul shooting is a poor 59.4 percent for the regular season.
Inside, neither reserve post Yelena Leuchanka nor Alison Bales is quite what the Dream need. Of the two, Bales is a more effective shot blocker but Leuchanka is the better defender. Both need to contribute more offensively as the third post option. Brittainey Raven plays the fewest minutes on the roster. As wings go, she possesses WNBA athleticism but is shooting only 24.4 percent from the field and struggles with decision making on the court.
Of the Mystics’ reserves, Marissa Coleman gets the most time off the bench, averaging 6.5 points per game. She is a decent three-point threat, but is a marginal defender and a shaky ball handler.
Matee Ajavon can hurt the opposition with penetration (5.9 points per game) and is more than adequate defensively but not much of a long-range threat. Chasity Melvin (discussed above) may not start but often plays more minutes than some starters, either replacing or playing alongside Nakia Sanford.
Jacinta Monroe, who prefers the high post, is just starting to get minutes as her rookie campaign has been dogged by injuries. Ashley Houts plays sparingly as a back-up point; Katie Smith normally shifts from the two to the point to fill in behind Harding.
Advantage: On net, give a slight edge to the Mystics.
Coaching
Atlanta’s Marynell Meadors has more WNBA experience as a head coach than her Mystics’ counterpart Julie Plank, as Meadors also led the Charlotte Sting about a decade ago. Plank may not have the experience, but she took a team that had lost its best player (Beard) for the entire season and still managed to finish as the top seed in the East, making her a legitimate Coach-of-the-Year candidate.
Advantage: Neither has won a WNBA championship, so call this about even.
STRATEGY
Offense: Will the Atlanta “Quick Strike” Offense Show Up in the Fourth Quarter?
Lately, Atlanta’s offense has bogged down far too often late in the game. The Dream want to play in the 80s or higher while the Mystics would be more comfortable in a game in the 70s. The Mystics will run, but more selectively than the Dream. Look for more consistent initial quarter-court offense from the Mystics, while the Dream tends to exploit their rebounding advantage (the Dream +3.2 to the Mystics’ +1.6 in offensive rebounding margin), relying on the second shot. The Dream, with about 3.4 more attempts per game from the charity stripe, also rely to a greater extent than the Mystics on getting to the foul line.
However, the shooting percentages in nearly every category favor the Mystics: Washington shoots 45.1 percent from the field to Atlanta’s 44.4 percent; 35.2 percent to the Dream’s 28.9 percent from beyond the arc; and 77.5 percent to Atlanta’s 70.9 percent from the penalty stripe.
Advantage: Call this category about even.
Defense
The Dream will use the zone more readily than the Mystics. Two reasons for their preference for zone come to mind: (1) The need to protect the basket, compensating for Lehning’s shortcomings on defense; and (2) to offset De Souza’s biggest weakness—fairly slow lateral quickness, which can be a big problem when she is matched up on Crystal Langhorne.
The Mystics can at times have trouble with size, and Coleman can often rack up fouls due to lack of defensive quickness. The Mystics are better in field-goal percentage defense (allowing opponents to shoot 42.6 percent from the field to Atlanta’s 43.5 percent). The Dream are slightly better defending the three-point line (allowing opponents to shoot 32 percent from beyond the Arc, while the Mystics give up 32.8 percent).
The Mystics are +4.2 in rebounding margin on the defensive glass to the Dream’s +1.5. In their four meetings this year, the Mystics won the battle of the boards twice, lost once, and wound up dead even once.
Advantage: Give the Mystics a slight edge here.
Intangibles
Washington comes in with the momentum of a six-game winning streak and the home court advantage on its side. (The Mystics are 13-4 at home versus just 10-7 for the Dream.) Moreover, as these two teams match up, the Mystics appear to be able to neutralize the rebounding advantage that Atlanta holds over most teams.
When you don’t control the glass, it is harder to get fast-break opportunities so vital to the Dream’s offensive philosophy. The uncertainty of Kelly Miller’s availability is another thing the Dream will have to compensate for.
On the whole, the Mystics are likely to play smarter more of the time.
Advantage: Give the Mystics a plus here.
PREDICTION
When you add up the columns, the tally clearly favors the Mystics. Yet Washington every now and then has a “struggle to score” game. Expect Atlanta to win one game before its Dream becomes a 2010 memory. We look for the Washington Mystics win the series in three games and advance to pursue the franchise’s first Eastern Conference championship.
Liberty-Fever Preview
After the Liberty beat the Fever in the first game of the Eastern Conference semifinals Thursday night, Plenette Pierson seemed to lay down a challenge for the rest of the league.
"Our depth is what makes us a good team," the veteran of two WNBA titles said. "Maybe you can contain Cappie (Pondexter) some nights. Maybe Leilani (Mitchell) will have a bad night or Taj (McWilliams-Franklin) won't feel good, but that's when someone else will step up.
"You can't stop us all."
That will be the dilemma for the Fever Sunday when the Liberty look to close out the best-of-three game series in Conseco Fieldhouse at 8 p.m. (ESPN2). Atlanta, which swept the top-seeded Mystics, awaits the winner in the conference finals.
Coming off their worst season in the franchise's 14-year history, 13-21, it was the trade for MVP candidate Pondexter that immediately made the Liberty a dark horse to win the East. She has lived up to her billing as a three-time All-Star, leading the Liberty in points (21.9 per game) and using her experience winning two WNBA titles in Phoenix to lead this mish-mash group of young Liberty players and veteran free agents to the playoffs.
It has been the development of those role players that now have made the Liberty a real contender for it's first ever WNBA title.
When the Liberty started out 4-7, however, the major offseason changes seemed like a mistake.
"It took longer than I thought it would," Liberty coach Anne Donovan said. "It took a while for everyone to get comfortable in their roles. Once they did, once other players were contributing, that is when we started winning."
Just Pondexter and McWilliams-Franklin (10.6 points per game) average in double figures. The Liberty, however, has four other players that contribute around nine points a game.
Mitchell, who was named the WNBA's Most Improved Player before Thursday's game, averaged 9.3 points per game, Pierson averaged 9.7, Nicole Powell averaged 9.3 and Janel McCarville averaged 8.8.
And then there is the unexpected role player like Essence Carson, who scored a season-high 17 Thursday night to boost the Liberty over the Fever, who steps up and fills a void.
"That's what has really made them a tough team," Fever coach Lin Dunn said. "You can do a good job on Cappie, you can do a good job on Taj, and then they have a player like Mitchell or Carson that will come out and make big plays.
"It's hard to match up with that."
INJURY REPORT
McWilliams-Franklin, who left Thursday night's game feeling light-headed, was "fine," Friday according to a team official, and is expected to play.
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